A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."