This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six games, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing United.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.